Commodity price shocks are frequently considered among the most important potential threats to the global economy. However, since the second half of the 1980s, energy prices have experienced very large changes, with arguably limited effects on global GDP developments. This column presents evidence that oil shocks just aren’t what they used to be when it comes to macroeconomic effects.

The idea of having GDP growth as the main target of economic policy has been under attack in recent years. This column addresses some of the criticisms and argues that continued GDP growth would be good for the UK and other European countries – and not just in the short term to reduce high levels of unemployment.

If rich and poor countries have access to the same technology, shouldn't their productivity levels eventually converge? This would imply that poor countries should grow more quickly until they catch up – but such a tendency has never been proven. CEPR DP8631 shows that this convergence in output does in fact occur – but within manufacturing sectors rather than in economies as a whole.

The UK’s early estimate of GDP growth for the third quarter of 2009 still shows negative growth with a reading of -0.4%. This column combines the quarterly releases of GDP with timely survey data to form a “now-cast” of quarterly GDP growth. It says that the UK has likely exited the recession already, estimating positive growth of 0.15%.

The post-crisis data indicate that Italy is faring worse than the rest of Europe, except Germany. Moreover, the Italian economy entered a period of hardships and disappointing growth well before the mortgage crisis developed. This column argues that Italy cannot afford to postpone reforms if it wants to resume faster long-run growth.