In light of the failings outlined in my previous column, we need an exit strategy. Even if recent events cannot be interpreted as a systemic crisis and only stem from a number of important technical problems in financial markets, they could become a major turning point if the recovery continues to be managed in the haphazard, improvised way it has been thus far.
Lessons for the future: Ideas and rules for the world in the aftermath of the storm, Part II
Guido Tabellini, 17 July 2009
The New York Fed’s timelines of policy responses to the global financial crisis
Rebecca Hellerstein, Jeffrey Shrader, William Ryan, 14 July 2009
Over the past two years, and particularly since the intensification of the global financial crisis in the fall of 2008, new information has been released at an astonishing pace. Between the breaking developments in the markets and the vast array of policy initiatives across countries, it has become increasingly challenging to keep track of the complex and evolving response to the crisis.
The Great Synchronisation: What do high-frequency statistics tell us about the trade collapse?
Joaquim Oliveira Martins, Sónia Araújo, 8 July 2009
In a recent Vox column, Barry Eichengreen and Kevin O’Rourke (2009) provided evidence that trade flows are fallen much more sharply during this crisis than the Great Depression (also see Freund 2009).
Policy Responses to the Crisis: Implications for the WTO and International Cooperation
Simon J Evenett, Bernard Hoekman, 6 July 2009
For the first time since World War II, global GDP will decline this year (by an expected 2.9%). Developing countries growth will fall to 1.2% from 5.9% in 2008 (World Bank 2009). Worse, once China and India are excluded, the remaining developing economies will shrink on average by 1.6%, revealing the extent to which the crisis has hit developing countries.
Demystifying the collapse in trade
Caroline Freund, 3 July 2009
The financial crisis is wreaking havoc on the global economy. In the first quarter of 2009, nominal trade fell by 30% on average relative to the same period last year. The world trade volume is estimated to have fallen by over 15% during this period. The declines have been widespread across countries and products, largely reflecting the sharp drop in global demand.
Why is Japan so heavily affected by the global economic crisis? An analysis based on the Asian international input-output tables
Kyoji Fukao, Tangjun Yuan, 8 June 2009
Though Japan has not suffered greatly from a housing collapse or toxic assets, its economy has been – in some respects – hit harder by the global crisis than the US or EU, as several analysts have noted (e.g. Buiter 2009). Japan’s GDP contraction in the fourth quarter of 2008 was nearly double that of the US (12.1% vs.
Trade finance: G20 and follow-up
Marc Auboin, 5 June 2009
The collapse of world trade is partly due to insufficient trade credit financing. The global market for trade finance (credit and insurance) represents approximately 80% of 2008 trade flows, valued at $15 trillion. The World Bank estimates that the fall in the supply of trade finance has contributed some 10% to 15% of the decrease in world trade since the second half of 2008.
Aid and the financial crisis: Shall we expect development aid to fall?
Emmanuel Frot, 13 May 2009
The Development Assistance Committee (DAC) of the OECD, a forum for the major bilateral aid donors, released, at the end of March, the 2008 figures of official development assistance. It announced it at $119.8 billion, the highest level ever recorded.
Reflections on the chronology of the financial crisis
Roger M. Kubarych, 4 May 2009
The financial crisis is not over but it has seemed less scary in the weeks since the US stock market decided that most big banks will survive. But before we get complacent, don’t forget how far the market has gone down (basically it lost almost half its peak value) and how little the net bounce has been; year-to-date, the S&P 500 is still lower.
The big drop: Trade and the Great Recession
Joseph Francois, Julia Woerz, 2 May 2009
Recent trends in trade have invited a mix of consternation and hyperbole in the business and economics press and blogosphere alike. Discussion has ranged from worries about export credit shortfalls to resurgent protectionism.
- Fiscal consolidation: At what speed?Blanchard, Leigh
- Public debt and economic growth, one more timePanizza, Presbitero
- Escaping liquidity traps: Lessons from the UK’s 1930s escapeCrafts
- The lessons of the North Atlantic crisis for economic theory and policyStiglitz
- Rethinking macroeconomic policyBlanchard
- A tale of two depressions: What do the new data tell us? February 2010 updateEichengreen, O’Rourke
- Educated in America: College graduates and high school dropoutsHeckman, LaFontaine
- Eurozone breakup would trigger the mother of all financial crisesEichengreen
- Debt, deleveraging, and the liquidity trap: A new modelKrugman
- Panic-driven austerity in the Eurozone and its implicationsDe Grauwe, Ji
Reichlin, Baldwin, 14 April 2013
CEPR Policy Research
- Political Credit Cycles: The Case of the Euro ZoneFernández-Villaverde, Garicano, Santos
- Winning by Losing: Incentive Incompatibility in Multiple QualifiersDagaev, Sonin
- Income and schoolingBrückner, Gradstein
- Monetary Policy and Rational Asset Price BubblesGalí
- Does Supporting Passenger Railways Reduce Road Traffic Externalities?Lalive, Luechinger, Schmutzler
- How the EZ crisis is permanently changing EU institutionsMicossi
- WTO 2.0: Global governance of supply-chain tradeBaldwin
- Is US economic growth over? Faltering innovation confronts the six headwindsGordon
- The economic crisis: How to stimulate economies without increasing public debtWood
- Austerity: Too Much of a Good Thing?Corsetti