Value-added exchange rates

Rudolfs Bems, Robert Johnson, 6 December 2012

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Real effective exchange rates (REERs) are widely used to gauge competitiveness. Yet conventional REERs, based on gross trade flows and consumer price indexes (CPIs), are not well suited to that role when imports are used to produce exports – i.e., with vertical specialisation in trade.

Topics: Competition policy, Global economy, International trade
Tags: China, competitiveness, Germany, global imbalances, globalisation, iPhone, supply chains, trade

Global trade in services: Fear, facts, and offshoring

J. Bradford Jensen, 19 November 2012

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Should the US, or indeed the EU, Japan, Canada, or Australia, fear increased trade in services? As the ‘Really Good Friends of Services’ discussions gain momentum in Geneva, it seems an important time to ask1.

Topics: International trade
Tags: global imbalances, international trade, protectionism, WTO

Slow but steady? External adjustment within the Eurozone starts working

Marco Buti, Alessandro Turrini, 12 November 2012

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There is a general perception in the policy debate that Eurozone imbalances are not adjusting. Deficit countries are stuck in an unsustainable equilibrium and surplus countries’ growth is mostly based on exports. The most pressing concern is that a symmetric evolution of competitiveness between surplus and deficit countries is needed for rebalancing to be complete and durable.

Topics: EU policies, Europe's nations and regions, Financial markets, Labour markets
Tags: banking union, Eurozone crisis, financial crisis, global imbalances, Greece

Global Rebalancing 2.0

Linda Lim, Ronald U Mendoza , 24 September 2012

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The discussion on global rebalancing is at a crossroads, and much of what will shape policy options moving forward will have to be taken up in roundtables that include more countries than the two usual suspects, China and the US.

Topics: Global economy
Tags: China, global imbalances, US

Why do Chinese households save so much?

Raman Ahmed, Heleen Mees, 28 August 2012

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China’s monumental savings rate is a popular topic of for policy discussion.1  It has been blamed for the global financial crisis, currency wars (Portes 2010), and the ensuing Great Recession (Mees 2012). But what explains the high savings rate?

Topics: Global economy
Tags: China, global imbalances, savings rate

China’s strong domestic demand has reduced its trade surplus

Françoise Lemoine, Deniz Ünal, 19 July 2012

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Between 2005 and 2007 China’s accumulated huge trade surpluses and played a major part in the rise of global imbalances. The US and China have repeatedly come in conflict over the imbalance in bilateral trade.

Topics: Global economy, International trade
Tags: China, current account, global imbalances

China: No longer the villain

Marco Annunziata, 21 April 2012

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While concerns about Spain and, to a lesser extent, Italy have again taken centre-stage, a number of experts and market participants are almost as worried and sceptical about China as they are about the Eurozone.

Topics: Global economy
Tags: China, global imbalances

The determinants and long-term projections of saving rates in emerging Asia

Charles Yuji Horioka, Akiko Terada-Hagiwara, 28 November 2011

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Governor Ben S Bernanke of the Federal Reserve Board has repeatedly warned of the dangers of global imbalances and a global saving glut and has asserted that the economies of emerging Asia have contributed to both global imbalances and the global saving glut by shifting from current-account deficits to current-account surpluses (Bernanke 2005, 2010, 2011).

Topics: Macroeconomic policy
Tags: Asia, global imbalances, saving rates

Upstream sovereigns

Laura Alfaro, Sebnem Kalemli-Ozcan, Vadym Volosovych, 29 October 2011

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The key policy concern preceding the 2007–09 crisis was global imbalances. The extensive policy intervention in the aftermath of the crisis did not bring any resolution to the issue.

Topics: Global crisis, International trade
Tags: global imbalances

The global saving glut will hold bond yields down

Heleen Mees, 8 August 2011

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The saving glut theory has gone out of fashion – unjustly so. In spite of twin financial crises looming on either side of the Atlantic, US Treasury and German Bund yields have declined in recent weeks. This can be explained by not only the dismal economic growth of the US economy in the first semester of 2011, but also the unrelenting build-up in total debt securities outstanding.

Topics: Global crisis
Tags: China, Eurozone crisis, fiscal crises, global crisis, global imbalances, US

CEPR Policy Research