http://www.VoxEU.org Recent articles added to VoxEU.org en http://www.VoxEU.org/index.php?q=node/5462 Alan J Auerbach, Yuriy Gorodnichenko, 3 September 2010

The return from a fiscal stimulus – the fiscal multiplier – remains one of the most controversial topics in economics today. This column considers the influence of expectations, of variation in recessions and expansions, and of different components of government spending. It finds that the size of the multiplier varies considerably over the business cycle: between 0 and 0.5 in expansions and between 1 and 1.5 in recessions.

Full Article: Measuring the output responses to fiscal policy]]> Fri, 03 Sep 2010 00:00:00 GMT http://www.VoxEU.org/index.php?q=node/5462 http://www.VoxEU.org/index.php?q=node/5457 Richard Baldwin, Dany Jaimovich, 2 September 2010

As WTO trade talks languish, what’s driving the surge in regional trade agreements? This column says that regionalism is being driven in large part by the domino effect, in which nations excluded from a trade agreement launch their own negotiations to redress trade diversion. This dynamic is more of a challenge to the WTO than a threat at the moment, but it should not be neglected.

Full Article: Contagious FTAs: New evidence on the domino theory of regionalism]]> Thu, 02 Sep 2010 00:00:00 GMT http://www.VoxEU.org/index.php?q=node/5457 http://www.VoxEU.org/index.php?q=node/5454 Simon Dietz, Geoffrey Heal, Antony Millner, 1 September 2010

The answers to “How much should people sacrifice today for the benefit of those living several decades from now?” vary widely. This column suggests that people’s distaste for uncertainty – ambiguity aversion – favours immediate, rapid cuts in greenhouse gas emissions.

Full Article: Ambiguity is another reason to mitigate climate change]]> Wed, 01 Sep 2010 00:00:00 GMT http://www.VoxEU.org/index.php?q=node/5454 http://www.VoxEU.org/index.php?q=node/5450 Rong Qian, Carmen M. Reinhart, Kenneth Rogoff, 31 August 2010

Are declarations of victory against the global crisis premature? This column argues that “graduation” – the emergence from recurrent crisis bouts – is a long and painful process which neither developed nor developing countries look close to completing. Two centuries of evidence suggests that most countries need 50 years before the chances of further crises subside.

Full Article: Do countries “graduate” from crises? An historical perspective ]]> Tue, 31 Aug 2010 00:00:00 GMT http://www.VoxEU.org/index.php?q=node/5450 http://www.VoxEU.org/index.php?q=node/5448 Marek Brabec, John Komlos, 31 August 2010

More than one billion adults across the globe are overweight, and at least 300 million are clinically obese. This column argues that the obesity epidemic in the US has been creeping up throughout the twentieth century, much earlier than the official account acknowledges. Current US standards thereby mislead many overweight and obese youth into believing that their weight is normal when it is not.

Full Article: 100 years of US obesity]]> Tue, 31 Aug 2010 00:00:00 GMT http://www.VoxEU.org/index.php?q=node/5448 http://www.VoxEU.org/index.php?q=node/5449 Ricardo Caballero, 30 August 2010

The US may be near a liquidity trap. This column argues that the ineffectiveness of monetary policy can be turned on its head by using money creation to finance fiscal policy stimulus – such as a large but temporary cut in sales taxes. To avoid future problems, the Treasury could commit to transfer resources back to the Fed when the economy is back to full employment. This would be a helicopter drop with a drainage contingency.

Full Article: A helicopter drop for the US Treasury]]> Mon, 30 Aug 2010 00:00:00 GMT http://www.VoxEU.org/index.php?q=node/5449 http://www.VoxEU.org/index.php?q=node/5444 Donato de Rosa, Nishaal Gooroochurn, Holger Görg, 30 August 2010

Does it pay to be corrupt? This column presents evidence from 22 emerging economies in Europe and the former Soviet Union on the effects of corruption on firm productivity. It finds that in a highly corrupt country, bribing officials actually has a negative effect on productivity, whereas in countries with strong institutions, it can open doors that competitors dare not touch.

Full Article: Corruption, institutions, and firm productivity]]> Mon, 30 Aug 2010 00:00:00 GMT http://www.VoxEU.org/index.php?q=node/5444 http://www.VoxEU.org/index.php?q=node/5445 Edward Glaeser, Joshua Gottlieb, Joseph Gyourko, 28 August 2010

The debate over the cause of the US housing boom and bust is far from concluded. This column questions the explanation that low interest rates were a critical factor, arguing that it sits uneasily alongside theories of household behaviour and historical evidence. With the causes remaining uncertain, the authors call for more research in this area.

Full Article: Interest rates and the US housing boom: A call for more research ]]> Sat, 28 Aug 2010 00:00:00 GMT http://www.VoxEU.org/index.php?q=node/5445 http://www.VoxEU.org/index.php?q=node/5438 Mona Haddad, Ann Harrison, Catherine Hausman, 27 August 2010

The great trade collapse that accompanied the global crisis was historically severe. This column presents evidence from several countries suggesting that the great trade collapse was more concentrated along the intensive margin – the reduction in the value of goods already being traded – providing hope that trade may recover sooner than feared.

Full Article: Prices vs quantities in the great trade collapse: New evidence]]> Fri, 27 Aug 2010 00:00:00 GMT http://www.VoxEU.org/index.php?q=node/5438 http://www.VoxEU.org/index.php?q=node/5436 Arnelyn Abdon, Jesus Felipe, Utsav Kumar, 26 August 2010

Why have China and India been able to grow so quickly? This column argues that while the industrial policies pursued by both countries up until the 1980s led to gross mistakes and inefficiencies, China and India would not be where they are now without them. Their export baskets are far more sophisticated and diversified than expected given their income per capita.

Full Article: China and India: Those two big outliers]]> Thu, 26 Aug 2010 00:00:00 GMT http://www.VoxEU.org/index.php?q=node/5436