 Has equity always earned a premium? Evidence from nineteenth-century BritainGraeme Acheson , Charles Hickson, John Turner , Qing Ye, 10 May 2008Past performance is no guarantee, but history tells us that the equity risk premium has been persistent. This column shows that British investors enjoyed relatively high returns in the nineteenth century, though today’s UK market differs greatly from its formative ancestor. The historical roots of India’s booming service economyStephen Broadberry, Bishnupriya Gupta, 9 May 2008India stands out from other emerging economies because its growth has been led by the service sector rather than labour-intensive manufactures. This column summarises recent research showing that India has a long history of strength in services, and its service-led development may play to historical strengths rather than hindering its progress. Avoiding disorderly deleveraging: a reasonable, radical proposalLuigi Spaventa, 8 May 2008The global financial system may be caught in a downward spiral as market and funding illiquidity reinforce each other. The author of CEPR Policy Insight 22 presents a radical proposal that would break the feedback loop by not valuing illiquid assets at market prices under crisis conditions. Blame the modelsJon Danielsson, 8 May 2008In response to financial turmoil, supervisors are demanding more risk calculations. But model-driven mispricing produced the crisis, and risk models don’t perform during crisis conditions. The belief that a really complicated statistical model must be right is merely foolish sophistication. Does conflict lead to cooperation – and corporate consolidation?Kareen Rozen, 7 May 2008Some industries, such as airlines, are seemingly perpetually abuzz with merger discussions. This column summarises how economic theory might explain such talks, and what it means for merging companies and consumers. The anemic response of skill investment to skill premium growthJoseph G. Altonji, Prashant Bharadwaj, Fabian Lange, 6 May 2008The earnings premium for skilled labour has increased dramatically in recent decades. Yet, as this column shows, Americans are not acquiring significantly greater skills in response to this change. The resulting gap will increase US income inequality in the coming decades. Taxing gambling in the 1700sNicholas Tosney, 5 May 2008There is increasing public concern about gambling, and the UK government recently established a Gambling Commission. This column examines England’s historical experience with regulating and taxing gambling to draw lessons for the present. Art puzzlesNauro F. Campos, 3 May 2008Art auctions are a testing ground for economic theory. This column summarises recent research that uses extensive data on works of Latin American art to study auction outcomes. Most puzzlingly, there is a persistent “afternoon effect,” in which identical goods auctioned later command lower prices. Offshoring and immigrant employment: Signs of strengthGiuseppe Bertola, 2 May 2008There is significant public concern that globalisation heralds the deindustrialisation of rich economies. This column explains why offshoring and immigration are signs of economic vitality and manufacturing strength, not weakness. The key is to address distributional concerns so that all benefit from globalisation. The inappropriateness of financial regulationAvinash Persaud, 1 May 2008Financial regulation never works the way it should. Here one of the world’s most experienced analysts of the global financial system presents some remarkably clear thinking on why we should not just do more of the same. An alternative model for policy action is proposed. Four mega-dangers international financial markets faceDennis J Snower, 30 April 2008The financial turmoil has been worsening as lagged adjustment processes play out. This column outlines economic dangers that may arise as they unwind, including a scenario in which the United States suffers extended stagflation. Networking, citation of academic research, and premature deathJoshua Aizenman, Kenneth Kletzer, 30 April 2008Academic citations are a popular measure of research output, but they also serve strategic and social functions. This column examines the importance of scholars promoting their own research by surveying the citation counts of prominent economists who passed away prematurely. A randomised experiment with unemployment benefitsJohn Micklewright, Gyula Nagy, 30 April 2008Most studies of unemployment benefits examine benefit levels or lengths of payment, but how benefit schemes are administered is also important. This column reports the results of a randomised control trial conducted in Hungary, which show that closer monitoring of some benefit recipients shortened their unemployment spell. The lifecycle of regionsDavid B Audretsch, Oliver Falck, Maryann P. Feldman, Stephan Heblich, 29 April 2008Economic geography models suggest various relationships between innovation and spatial concentration, from benefits of diversity in cities to agglomeration gains in specialised industrial parks. This column summarises empirical research that uses these theories to explain various stages of “regional lifecycles.” An important result is that supra-national EU policymakers are poorly positioned to address regions’ differing needs. Market power and trade policyBruce Blonigen, 28 April 2008Though policymakers show great concern for market power when discussing antitrust policy, they neglect it when designing trade policies. This column summarises recent empirical research showing that some trade barriers impose significant costs on consumers by substantially raising the market power of domestic firms. Monetary policy must respond to the housing marketRoberto Cardarelli, Tommaso Monacelli, Alessandro Rebucci, Luca Sala, 26 April 2008Recent housing finance innovations have changed the relationship between house prices and the business cycle. This column suggests that these changes amplify spillovers from the housing sector to the rest of the economy and recommends that monetary policy respond more aggressively to the housing market. Food prices: The need for insuranceEsther Duflo, 25 April 2008Rising food prices are hurting many poor people, but they are helping poor agricultural producers. Food price volatility, on the other hand, is bad for everyone. This column explains poor people’s need for food price variability insurance. Child labour: lessons from the Industrial RevolutionJane Humphries, 24 April 2008Child labour remains a pervasive problem across the globe. This column discusses the nature of child labourers’ jobs, earnings, motivations, and well-being during the British Industrial Revolution. Their historical experience offers lessons for today’s policymakers. The paradox of disappearing European unemploymentTito Boeri, 23 April 2008Unemployment has fallen greatly in Europe during the last decade, yet governments creating millions of jobs are losing elections. The source of public dissatisfaction is that the price of lower unemployment is greater employment risk. This column proposes further labour market reforms to address the problem. The effect of mergers on consumer pricesOrley Ashenfelter, Daniel Hosken, 22 April 2008US antitrust authorities block very few mergers. This column presents estimates of the consumer price impact of five large mergers that were allowed. Prices increased, providing one piece of evidence to support those who say US antitrust authorities are too acquiescent. Subprime 'crisis': FAQs (revised & updated)Stephen Cecchetti, 15 August 2007A revised and updated version of the 13 August column on the basic how's and why's of what the Fed has been doing to calm financial markets. Views 25363Subprime ‘crisis’: FAQsStephen Cecchetti, 13 August 2007Here are the basic how's and why's of what the Fed has been doing to calm financial markets. Views 19516Krugman’s view on the dollarRichard Baldwin, 2 October 2007As the dollar has started to slide, the question is: how far, how fast? This column, which is based on Paul Krugman’s recent Economic Policy article suggests the answers are: pretty far and pretty fast. Views 17834Tennis, pressure and the gender wage-gapM Daniele Paserman, 26 June 2007Female tennis players play more conservatively and commit more unforced errors when playing critical points. Does this explain the upper-echelons wage gap? Views 12106Trade and inequality, revisitedPaul Krugman, 15 June 2007It’s no longer safe to assert that trade’s impact on the income distribution in wealthy countries is fairly minor. There’s a good case that it is big, and getting bigger. I’m not endorsing protectionism, but free-traders need better answers to the anxieties of globalisation’s losers. Views 11712Educated in America: College graduates and high school dropoutsJames J. Heckman, Paul A. LaFontaine, 13 February 2008Official statistics for US high school graduation rates mask a growing educational divide. This column presents research showing that a record number of Americans are going to university – while an increasing number are dropping out of high school. This poses major social challenges for the United States. Views 11465The euro could surpass the dollar within ten yearsJeffrey Frankel, 18 March 2008One of the world’s leading international economists explains how the euro could surpass the dollar as the premier international currency and examines the geopolitical implications of such a shift. Views 11167The dangerous protectionism of Barack ObamaWillem Buiter, Anne Sibert, 26 February 2008Barack Obama, the likely Democratic presidential candidate, has proposed tax breaks for US corporations that invest at home rather than abroad. This column argues that his proposal is protectionist, reactionary, and economically unsound. Views 9827Subprime 'crisis': What Central Bankers should do and whyWillem Buiter, Anne Sibert, 13 August 2007Last week's actions by the ECB, the Fed and the Bank of Japan were not particularly helpful – a classic example of trying to manage a credit crisis or liquidity squeeze using the tools suited to monetary policy-making in orderly markets. Monetary policy is easy; preventing or overcoming a financial crisis is hard; managing the exit from a credit squeeze without laying the foundations for the next credit and liquidity explosion is harder still. Central bankers should earn their keep by acting as market makers of last resort. Views 9472Slave trade and African underdevelopmentNathan Nunn, 8 December 2007Slavery, according to historical accounts, played an important role in Africa’s underdevelopment. It fostered ethnic fractionalisation and undermined effective states. The largest numbers of slaves were taken from areas that were the most underdeveloped politically at the end of the 19th century and are the most ethnically fragmented today. Recent research suggests that without the slave trades, 72% of Africa’s income gap with the rest of the world would not exist today. Views 8719Why the Left should learn to love liberalismAlberto Alesina, Francesco Giavazzi, 5 October 2007Anti-reformists in Europe claim to be protecting Europe’s weak and poor. Nothing could be further from the truth. Labour-market flexibility, deregulation of the service industry, pension reforms and greater competition in university funding might harm the interest of well-connected, privileged citizens but it would open up opportunities for Europe’s youth and disadvantaged groups. A real left-wing agenda would embrace reform. Views 8129Subprime crisis: causes, consequences and curesCarmen M. Reinhart, 15 March 2008We may just have started to feel the pain. Asset price drops – including housing – are common markers in all the big banking crises over the past 30 years. GDP declines after such crises were both large (-2% on average) and protracted (2 years to return to trend); in the 5 biggest crises, the numbers were -5% and 3 years. This column, based on the author’s testimony to the Congress, picks through the causes and consequences. It argues that when it comes to ‘cures,’ it would be far better to get the job done right than get the job done quickly. Views 7944Lessons of 1000 years of trade historyRonald Findlay, Kevin H. O’Rourke, 10 March 2008Globalisation is fundamentally political, not technological. This is the lesson from a new book tracing 1000 years of international trade history. Here the authors use lessons from the past to identify challenges for globalisation in the 21st century. Views 7202Subprime crisis: Progress report and more FAQsStephen Cecchetti, 27 August 2007The problem: About $1 trillion of commercial paper will mature in coming months. If issuers can’t roll it over, firms will turn to lines of credit that they have arranged as insurance against such events. Banks will be forced to make these loans, and credit conditions elsewhere will tighten. Such a credit crunch will inevitably slow the economy. This column explains the what's, why's and how's of the unfolding crisis and provides a progress report on the Fed's actions. Views 6539German recovery: it’s the supply sideMichael Burda, 23 July 2007Germany has finally gotten aboard the train of labour market, supply-side oriented reforms initiated by Europe’s success stories -- Netherlands, Denmark, Ireland, and the UK. Italy and France would do well to follow suit Views 6256Poland's square-root-nessRichard Baldwin, Mika Widgrén, 15 June 2007Poland insists that the EU allocate Council-of-Minister votes according to the sqaure root of each nation's population. There is a method to this madness, in fact it has a cherished place in voting game theory, but it takes some work to see why. Views 6156Subprime crisis: Greenspan’s LegacyTito Boeri, Luigi Guiso, 23 August 2007The subprime crisis has its origin in Greenspan’s low interest rate policy. His successor should take care to reassure the markets in the short run without laying the foundations for a new overreaction “a la Greenspan”. Views 6149US-Europe income gap: Is it for real?Alberto Alesina, Guido Tabellini, 8 June 2007GDP per capita is a poor measure since it leaves out home production and intangible investments. Considering these two items, however, suggests that if GDP were measured correctly, Europe’s relative decline might be even more pronounced. Views 6128Subprime crises: New evidence on the credit boom's roleGiovanni Dell'Ariccia, Deniz Igan, Luc Laeven, 4 February 2008Recent US mortgage market troubles unsteadied the global economy. This column summarises research analysing millions of loan applications to investigate the roots of the crisis. A credit boom may be to blame. Views 5862What can we learn from successful autocracies?Tim Besley, Masa Kudamatsu, 5 July 2007Autocracies are bad, but are sometimes economically successful. Empirical analysis provides lessons on how to institutionalise good government in a wider context. Views 5699 Avoiding disorderly deleveraging: a reasonable, radical proposalLuigi Spaventa, 8 May 2008The global financial system may be caught in a downward spiral as market and funding illiquidity reinforce each other. The author of CEPR Policy Insight 22 presents a radical proposal that would break the feedback loop by not valuing illiquid assets at market prices under crisis conditions. Offshoring and immigrant employment: Signs of strengthGiuseppe Bertola, 2 May 2008There is significant public concern that globalisation heralds the deindustrialisation of rich economies. This column explains why offshoring and immigration are signs of economic vitality and manufacturing strength, not weakness. The key is to address distributional concerns so that all benefit from globalisation. The inappropriateness of financial regulationAvinash Persaud, 1 May 2008Financial regulation never works the way it should. Here one of the world’s most experienced analysts of the global financial system presents some remarkably clear thinking on why we should not just do more of the same. An alternative model for policy action is proposed. Four mega-dangers international financial markets faceDennis J Snower, 30 April 2008The financial turmoil has been worsening as lagged adjustment processes play out. This column outlines economic dangers that may arise as they unwind, including a scenario in which the United States suffers extended stagflation. Monetary policy must respond to the housing marketRoberto Cardarelli, Tommaso Monacelli, Alessandro Rebucci, Luca Sala, 26 April 2008Recent housing finance innovations have changed the relationship between house prices and the business cycle. This column suggests that these changes amplify spillovers from the housing sector to the rest of the economy and recommends that monetary policy respond more aggressively to the housing market. Food prices: The need for insuranceEsther Duflo, 25 April 2008Rising food prices are hurting many poor people, but they are helping poor agricultural producers. Food price volatility, on the other hand, is bad for everyone. This column explains poor people’s need for food price variability insurance. The opiate of the elitesAndrew Gelman, David Park, Boris Shor, Jeronimo Cortina, 21 April 2008Barack Obama attracted attention recently by describing small-town Americans who were “bitter” at economic prospects who “cling to guns or religion’’ in frustration. But an opposite view, 'post-materialism', suggests that, as people and societies get richer, their concerns shift from mundane bread-and-butter issues to cultural and spiritual concerns. Eight hundred years of financial follyCarmen M. Reinhart, 19 April 2008In the context of the last thirty years, the present period appears to be unlikely to produce a wave of sovereign debt defaults. But a new database spanning eight centuries reveals that history has many lessons for those studying financial crises. Contrary to conventional wisdom, today may not be very different. High oil prices and the return of “resource nationalism”Sergei Guriev, Anton Kolotilin, Konstantin Sonin, 12 April 2008The rising price of oil has been accompanied by nationalisations of oil assets, and the relationship is no mere coincidence. Recent research shows that higher oil prices trigger expropriations, particularly in countries with weak political institutions. Federal Reserve policy responses to the crisis of 2007-08Stephen Cecchetti, 10 April 2008The nature of the ongoing financial turmoil that began in August 2007 has rendered traditional monetary policy responses ineffective. This column summarises the US Federal Reserve’s response to the crisis. Icelandic turbulence: A spending spree endsGylfi Zoega, 9 April 2008Iceland’s economic turbulence sounds like a familiar macroeconomic story – a credit expansion fuelled excessive borrowing and spending. But there are unfamiliar details – an unusually large banking sector and a central bank unable to serve as a credible lender of last resort – that raise concerns. Nevertheless, Iceland should be able to weather the current turmoil. Events in Iceland: Skating on thin ice?Thorvaldur Gylfason, 7 April 2008Recent events have commentators discussing whether Iceland is in danger of an economic meltdown. This column examines the situation in detail, explaining the sources of today’s financial woes and why, despite serious need for reform, Iceland’s fundamentals are strong. A long term perspective on the EuroMichael Bordo, Harold James, 4 April 2008The euro may surpass the dollar in coming decades to become the leading international currency. This column summarises four major challenges that the euro must survive for that to come true. Subprime crises and Bagehot’s wisdomXavier Vives, 31 March 2008The current crisis is a modern form of a traditional banking crisis. The 125-year-old Bagehot's doctrine tells us how governments should react – lend to solvent but illiquid financial institutions. While easy to state, the doctrine is hard to apply. The key question to assess the future consequences of current central bank policy is whether the subprime mortgage crisis arises in the context of a moderate or a severe underlying moral hazard problem. Emergency Bank Debt Insurance: The Silver bullet solution?Javier Suarez, 27 March 2008Lender of Last Resort interventions aren’t working. It is time for more radical thinking. This column argues for the creation of a “Emergency Bank Debt Insurance Mechanism” that would go beyond Lender of Last Resort interventions. It would short-circuit the panic logic by temporarily providing full coverage to any short-term lending explicitly supported by the insurer. An Explanation for Soaring Commodity PricesJeffrey Frankel, 25 March 2008The standard story for high commodity prices is rapid growth by China, India and company. But world growth is slowing, while commodity prices still hit new highs. This column suggests that the key may be low real interest rates. (At least) Three simple reasons to fear inflationTommaso Monacelli, 20 March 2008Inflation is rising. This column identifies three sources of inflation and argues that it is very important for central banks to tame inflation now, before we face a vicious cycle of rising inflation and expected inflation. Would an EU banking authority have done better?Guido Tabellini, 19 March 2008The recent financial trouble has prompted much examination of private financial institutions, but few have asked why regulatory supervision did not prevent the crisis. This column argues that supervisory failure was also due to regulatory competition between national authorities and calls for a consolidated EU authority. The dangerous protectionism of Barack ObamaWillem Buiter, Anne Sibert, 26 February 2008Barack Obama, the likely Democratic presidential candidate, has proposed tax breaks for US corporations that invest at home rather than abroad. This column argues that his proposal is protectionist, reactionary, and economically unsound. Transparency and governance in the EurozonePetra Geraats, Francesco Giavazzi, Charles Wyplosz, 7 February 2008Central Banking works by guiding the expectations of savers, investors, consumers and markets – not an easy job. This column, based on the latest report in CEPR’s series ‘Monitoring the European Central Bank’, argues that the job would be easier if the ECB published its anticipated interest rate path and voting records. Africa Central Banks China climate change competition competitiveness Constitutional Treaty Doha Round dollar depreciation ECB economic growth education elections employment EMU EU euro Europe FDI Federal Reserve financial crisis financial stability France GDP gender equality gender wage gap Germany globalisation global warming greenhouse gases house prices Iceland immigration India Inequality inflation inflation targeting innovation interest rates international financial crises Italy liquidity manufacturing monetary policy Northern Rock offshoring productivity R&D Spain spillovers Subprime subprime crisis tax trade trade policy unemployment US VAT wages WTO What is a tag cloud?A Tag Cloud shows the frequency of tag usage: more commonly used tags are displayed with a larger font or stronger emphasis. Each tag in the cloud is linked to the articles with that tag. |
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Africa Central Banks China climate change competition competitiveness Constitutional Treaty Doha Round dollar depreciation ECB economic growth education elections employment EMU EU euro Europe FDI Federal Reserve financial crisis financial stability France GDP gender equality gender wage gap Germany globalisation global warming greenhouse gases house prices Iceland immigration India Inequality inflation inflation targeting innovation interest rates international financial crises Italy liquidity manufacturing monetary policy Northern Rock offshoring productivity R&D Spain spillovers Subprime subprime crisis tax trade trade policy unemployment US VAT wages WTO What is a tag cloud?A Tag Cloud shows the frequency of tag usage: more commonly used tags are displayed with a larger font or stronger emphasis. Each tag in the cloud is linked to the articles with that tag. |
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